Lithuanian President underscored strategic importance of Power Bridge between Lithuania and Sweden

President Valdas Adamkus received Carl Bildt, Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs on September 13.

As the Presidents press offices informed at their meeting, Mr. Adamkus pointed out that it was very important for Lithuania to continue developing dynamic relations with Scandinavian countries, particularly with Sweden. He further said that Sweden played a major role in crafting the EU Eastern Policy. Valdas Adamkus underlined that he greatly valued Mr. Bildt’s participation in the meeting of foreign ministers of the New Group of Georgia’s Friends (Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, and Bulgaria) held in Vilnius today.

The development of new energy projects in the Baltic region was also discussed at the meeting. President Adamkus said that Lithuania was greatly interested in building an electricity bridge between Lithuania and Sweden as soon as possible. “With the approaching decommissioning of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, this project will be not only commercially, but also strategically important for the whole region and Lithuania,” said Mr. Adamkus.

Among the other issues touched upon was the situation in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus as well as relations between the EU and South Caucasus countries.

The Swedish Foreign Minister accentuated the significance of focusing on EU’s eastern neighbours. Mr. Bildt noted that cooperation between the Baltic and Scandinavian countries  in addressing topical regional issues and developing EU’s Eastern Policy should be continued and strengthened.

SEB analysts on the forthcoming Lithuanian presidential election candidates

The SEB Bank on 18 September has presented its analysis regarding the future Lithuanian Presidential elections in 2009.  So far most of Lithuanian parties have not revealed their plans regarding candidacy for the 2009 elections.  According to the Bank there are few reasons for that, either they have not made decisions or the parties do not have a politician who could run for the post.

As the BNS reported the analysis states that “Some of them are not even giving serious thought to the alternative of raising candidacies of their chairmen or seeking a popular “legionary” in the society”.

The Social Democrats were the first ones to send signals to the political market by starting to pave the ground of their leader, Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas, to the helm of the state.

“The left party would like to safeguard their leader from possible bad luck in parliamentary elections and are, therefore, unwilling to include him in the party’s lists for single-mandate voting. The single-mandate ballot may bring various surprises and misfortunes, which is absolutely redundant for Kirkilas who is patiently stockpiling political capital. For this reason, the head of the Social Democratic Party will probably seek a mandate in the Seimas through the party list only”.

As the BNS writes according to the review, the strife for the presidential post will influence the performance of Kirkilas as the prime minister. Following his earlier unwillingness to launch reforms, he will continue to avoid any mistakes and refrain from risky decisions. Vital organizational issues regarding construction of the new nuclear power plant will be an exception, reads the document.

The analysts are almost certain concerning the independent candidate of the National Farmers’ Union for president – current Agriculture Minister Kazimira Prunskienė. “The ambitious politician would like to take revenge for the loss to Valdas Adamkus in the 2004 presidential elections, furthermore, a victory would crown her prolonged career in various state institutions”. Prunskienė’s plans could be affected by the weak performance of her party in the 2008 parliamentary elections, which is “quite possible.”

“The parliamentary interpellation against her ended in failure due to disapproval of the ruling coalition. One thing is obvious: as time passes, the prime minister is unlikely to allow his potential competitor to win political bonus,” reads the review. According to the document, the situation with the right and liberal political forces is far more complex, as their current leaders stand low chances of running for the presidential post.

Experts believe that the Conservatives’ support to the minority government of Kirkilas caused enormous damage to the image of the Conservatives’ leader Andrius Kubilius.  “On one hand, status as an opposition party puts under the obligation of criticizing the ruling majority, while on the other hand the agreements between the Conservatives and the Social Democrats “took the sting” out of the criticism. No wonder that the critical remarks have lately been rather formal or without a particular goal”.

SEB states that  the scandal of suspected corruption, which was not proved in court, has upset presidential plans for former Vilnius city mayor Artūras Zuokas of the Liberal Centre Union. Although he would be old enough to run for the 2009 elections, his controversial activities at the Vilnius city municipality are still resounding in the ears of the electorate. Furthermore, withdrawal to the opposition in the current city council has reduced Zuokas’ chances of attracting the society’s attention by way of specific actions and decisions.

The experts believe that the past year was not an ally to Petras Auštrevičius, the leader of the Liberal Movement.  “After the rather successful showing at the last presidential elections, the politician lost a considerable number of supporters and his earlier popularity. The main problem with Auštrevičius lies in his inability to concentrate on key issues of the state. Foreign policy is the strong point of the certificated economist, however, it is insufficient for winning voters’ trust”.

Under the circumstances, the right and the centrist political wings will search for outside figures who will be party-affiliated or, like the current president Valdas Adamkus, consolidating two or more parties.

One of the names frequently mentioned among presidential candidates is European Commission (EC) member Dalia Grybauskaitė, a former member of the Cabinet of Social Democrat Algirdas Brazauskas.

Grybauskaitė is said to have secured an image as a strong, determined and independent politician – characteristics sought by Lithuanian voters who are tired of backdoor compromises, protection of business or other interest groups at legislative and executive institutions.

However, as Grybauskaitė has only worked in domestic policy as a minister, doubts have been raised regarding the reliability of her image. Furthermore, her willingness to join the presidential race is still unclear.

In the experts opinion, the two years until the presidential elections in Lithuania give hope that the Conservatives and the Liberals would succeed in finding more aspirants for the post.

On the other hand, if the people are entirely new to the political arena, there is a risk that the duration of the “training camp” will not ensure proper preparation for the presidential “championship”.

The analysts guess that the minimum time needed for the preparation would be at least 12-15 months before the elections, i.e., everything necessary for participation in the polls should be done in the coming year.

The review notes that the current president, Adamkus, has only given a highly indistinct description of his visionary successor. In his opinion, he should be a Western representative of the young generation with no necessary obligations to a specific political party. Most importantly, he should be trusted by not only the political elite but also the society, which has given an extremely high degree of popularity to the current state leader.

From this point of view, the experts said, it will be difficult for the president’s successor to gain momentum due to the fact that Adamkus will definitely remain the moral authority for Lithuanian people until the end of the five-year tenure.

“The future president will have to work hard to overcome the threshold of honesty and dedication to the Homeland raised so high by Adamkus,” reads the review.

New centre of gravity within the Euro – Atlantic organisation is evolving

The blog would like to represent you with analysis from Mr Vladimir Socor, from the Jamestown Foundation, on the latest meeting of the The New Friends of Georgia group in Lithuania.

The New Friends of Georgia group of countries conferred in an enlarged and upgraded format on September 13-14 in Vilnius. This meeting shows that a strong nucleus of eight countries has developed within the European Union and NATO (alongside the United States in the latter case), supporting an active policy by the two organizations in Europe’s East generally and toward Georgia in particular.

Initiated in 2005 in Tbilisi by the three Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria, the New Friends’ group has matured this year. Georgia’s Black Sea neighbours Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU, while the Czech Republic and Sweden have joined the New Friends of Georgia group.  The meeting in Vilnius was the first held at the level of ministers of foreign affairs in full format. The EU’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, participated as an observer, while his Swedish compatriot, Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt, brought Sweden to the table for the first time.

Reviewing proposals prepared by Georgia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the New Friends group of countries agreed to work jointly as well as in their national capacities to promote the following Euro-Atlantic and Georgian goals: 

Regional Security and Stability
Noting that Georgia’s security, democratic stability, and integrity constitute major European and Transatlantic interests, the group called for policies to be premised on that fact. Georgia’s internal reforms, “a successful example in the region and beyond,” substantiate Georgia’s aspirations to closer Euro-Atlantic ties.

Strengthening Georgia’s ties with NATO and the EU would contribute to regional security and also help stabilize Russia-Georgia relations, the group noted. NATO AgendaThe New Friends (except Sweden, which is not a NATO member) support Georgia’s goal to advance to a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at NATO’s summit in Romania in the spring of 2008.

Based on Georgia’s performance on military reforms and its troop contributions to allied missions, the group concluded that Georgia already forms a significant element in Euro-Atlantic security and is prepared for the MAP. The Abkhaz and South Ossetian secessionist conflicts must not be turned into “an inhibiting factor or an excuse” for temporizing on Georgia’s integration into NATO. No country outside NATO [read: Russia] has a right to veto the alliance’s decisions, the group noted, as an indirect reminder to several West European governments in the context of the MAP debate.

EU Neighbourhood Policy
The meeting called for adjusting the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) more closely to Georgia’s internal reform performance and to the EU’s own interests in the region. Facilitation of travel visas and access of Georgian exports to the EU are priority goals. The EU’s current visa policy toward Georgia offers easier access to Russian passport holders (from Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well as from Russia), as compared with Georgian passport holders.

This policy is “unfair and counterproductive, it undermines Georgia’s territorial integrity and European security interests,” the group observed. It called on the EU countries to give the European Commission a mandate to negotiate trade and visa facilitation agreements with Georgia. 

Unresolved Conflicts
In his intervention, Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Adrian Cioroianu noted the parallels between the unresolved conflicts in Georgia and Moldova. He underscored the common interests of Romania and Georgia in resolving those conflicts on the basis of Georgia’s and Moldova’s territorial integrity and, as part of that process, ensuring Russia’s compliance with the 1999 Istanbul agreements to fully withdraw Russian forces from Georgia and Moldova.

However, “Russia wants a new treaty [on conventional forces in Europe] that would consign Russia’s commitments to oblivion. Romania wants no foreign troops unlawfully stationed in its neighborhood, and we have a common interest with Georgia in this regard,” Cioroianu declared (Mediafax, September 14).

The Romanian minister announced his country’s full support for Georgia to advance to MAP at NATO’s Bucharest summit. Such support is procedurally important, as the summit’s host country significantly influences the event’s agenda.

Shortly before the Vilnius meeting, Georgia’s New Friends acted effectively as a group already at the EU’s meeting of foreign affairs ministers in Portugal on September 8-9. There, the group’s countries called on the European Commission to begin negotiations with Georgia on travel visas and trade and on the EU to adopt a stronger collective position toward Russia’s ongoing intrusions into Georgia’s air space.

The New Friends are stepping into a role vacated by the old group of “Friends of Georgia.” Formed a decade ago by the United States, Germany, Britain, and France, that group soon lost its effectiveness and ultimately its relevance by admitting Russia into its ranks and reinventing itself as the United Nations Secretary General’s Friends on Georgia.

From that group, only the United States consistently adheres to the original policy priority while the other three Western powers have (in varying degrees) relegated Georgia to lesser priority status in their policies.

The Vilnius meeting amounts to a political signal that a new centre of gravity has evolved within Euro-Atlantic organizations regarding policies in Europe’s eastern neighbourhood.  The United States and the New Friends of Georgia can together form a critical mass for shaping strategy and policy toward Georgia and in Europe’s East.Euro Asia Daily Monitor, September 17, 2007 — Volume 4, Issue 171

Lithuanian govt sticks to 2010 euro entry target

Vilnius remains very optimistic about the introduction of Euro in Lithuania in 2009.  The Lithuanian government said on 18 September that it sticks to its position that the most favourable conditions for Euro introduction in the country will be in place from 2010.

Based on information from the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Lithuania on the country’s compliance with the Maastricht criteria, the Cabinet decided not to change its position on the Euro adoption date, the government’s press office said.

This assurance come after a report from the analysts of the SEB Bank on the Lithuania economy was presented to public on the same day.  The evaluation explicitly states that Lithuania is set to miss the Maastricht criteria because of raising inflation.  The bank annalists are convinced that the most realistic date for the Euro introduction in Lithuania could be 2012.