Lituanica

The Lithuanian Baltos Lankos publishing house introduced its new publication, Edward Lucas’ ’The New Cold War’ in Lithuanian today.  The book was presented during a discussion at the Vilnius’ Book Fair.  Mr Virgis Valantinavicius moderated the discussion.  The book is already well known in Lithuania even before its official appearance.

Some of the commentators joking that the President Adamkus did a promotion for the book during his recent interview to the FT warning the West about a possibility of the New Cold War between the West and Russia.

Well, I am off to read the book, what about you?

All Lithuania celebrated the 90^th Independence Day.  In 1918, February 16 group of 20 Lithuanian intellectuals gathered in Vilnius and declared Lithuania’s Independence.  A week later the Estonians followed suit, the Latvians caught up in November of 1918.

I am not going to remind you importance of this day in the Lithuanian history, and would recommend you to visit the Wikipedia site.  I would like to talk about the present.

Interestingly enough but the Baltic States of Lithuanian, Latvia and Estonia has a great tradition of raising the flags of all three countries in marking each country’s Independence Day.

This was decided when the three Baltic States regained their hard thought Independence in 1990.  However, few years later our states turned into competitors, even in achieving their strategic aims of joining the NATO, and especially the EU.  Of course, there is nothing wrong with a good competition, and after all, perhaps because of that the occupied ex-Soviet provinces managed to catch up and join the EU together with Eastern European States like Czech Republic and Slovenia.

The well-deserved Baltic States acceptance to the Western political and security club almost left those states without a future direction.  There is a feeling of achievement and calmness, and an attitude that since we are in, we are safe, prevails.  Estonia is concentrated in becoming a Golden Province of the EU and completely turned into itself in perusing its goal.

Furthermore, Riga is experiencing the ‘eyes opening revelation’ and is conciliating of becoming a Russian advocates in the Brussels.  The influx of the Russian investment into Riga is playing its part in ‘turning’ some politicians into ‘friendly’ mood.  Of course, one has to have in mind a ‘delicate’ size of the national minority, especially in Riga.  If one is running Riga, one could run the all country.

In short the Baltic States are so pleased with themselves to such extend that we begun to forget our history lessons.  We can survive only when we stick together.  Lets remember 1920s and 1930s when we never managed to create a block together and lost our independence, and lets compare it to the 1990s.  The Economist called Latvia a ‘swing state’, which is starting to become manipulated by the Kremlin.  The same author warns that Russia is starting to retrieve the Eastern European states ‘not by tanks but by banks’.  Edward Lucas also notices that the West is loosing its influence in the Eastern Europe and is ‘rolling back’.

In short the Empire is striking back.  The Baltic States should drop an illusion that the ‘West will help us’ and start uniting its act together.  The West will not help anyone unless one is willing to help yourself.  The Baltic States should enhance their cooperation and start thinking about the Baltic region as one entity.  At least the three should begin cooperating closely in the security and information areas.  If the Finnish President voiced an initiative to begin an enhanced cooperation in security amongst the Baltic and Nordic States it should be taken as a wake up call to the region.

The Baltic States are also loosing the information war to Russia.  An average Balt knows much better what is happening in London or in Stockholm rather than in Vilnius, Tallinn or Riga.  Apart from the Baltic Times weekly there is not a Pan Baltic information outlet, which would cover all three Baltic States.  I am not talking about the City Paper that is based in Riga but writes mainly about Estonia that is not a bad think in itself.  A trouble with the Baltic Times is that, at least in Lithuania, we have very few politicians with a decent command of English, even though the young generation has no problem with that.

Despite the advancement of the IT the absolute majority of the Balts receive their main news from the TV.  Hence, what about a Pan Baltic TV channel which would broadcast in all three languages with the local subtitles.  Such a channel could ‘introduce’ all three states to each other, and hence will make us closer.  From what I understand the Lithuanian National translator approached the Latvian colleagues with such an idea.  However, the answer was negative due to lack of funding.

The Romans wisely observed that if a nation doesn’t provide for its own army, sooner of latter it will have to provide for the foreign troops.  The Baltic States already providing to the foreign troops, in the face of the Pan Baltic Kremlin’s financed Russian language First Baltic Channel, which is, by coincidence is registered in Riga. Lets hope that the New Pan Baltic and the Polish Ignalina Nuclear Plant project will be a source of growing unity amongst all four and especially amongst the Balts.  The project might take more than a decade to complete, hence we will be compelled to cooperate and get know each other better.

Lets hope that the news about the building of the plant will reach the general participant countries’ public not only via the First Baltic Channel, Regnum.ru or other Kremlin controlled media outlets but by our own media outlets.  The Kremlin is extremely skilful in manipulating information to its own needs.  Hence, lets unite, lets work together!

The Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus signed the amendments to the nuclear power plant law on February 12.  The signed amendments gave way for establishment of a national investor company Leo LT, which to be involved in construction of a nuclear plant and energy links with the West. A day before the President told to the Lithuanian media that he would be criticised if either way, so he decided to sign the document.

The President issued statement to the nation saying that “I came to this decision without any outside influences, any persuasion attempts, and having considered all the discussions, what was said and requested, I did this following my own consciousness, thinking that this is the sole best decision for the future at this time.”
The law was actively discussed in Lithuanian public.  I would like to present few pros and cons from the discussion: 

Arguments against;

There are no calculations how much it will cost

Will the electricity for the Lithuanian consumer be cheaper

Will the Nuclear plant reduce Lithuania’s dependency on Russia

The privatisation of the NDX lacked transparency

The private investor got the best deal out of it, the stata was robed

The State will held less than two thirds of the shares

The private investor will control all process since the public sector is weakThere are not enough safeguards to obligate the LEO LT to build the plant and the links with Poland and Sweden

The process was not transparent, no competition, Adamkus had met with the NDX half a year ago without an official announcement, same with PM Kirkilas. and etc.Only 63 parliamentarians out of 141 voted in favour of this crucially important project

Inviting a Vilniaus Prekyba Goupr to the the project would go against President’s warnings about dangers of oligarchy in politics and business

Unclear if this merger will not clash with the new EU legislation on separation of the energy destribution and production

Construction of the Plant will divert Lithuania’s attention away from developing the renewable energy capacity

Kuodis, Lithuanian National Bank
Everything taking place in the Lithuanian energy sector after VST privatization is, to my mind, one big affair crowned by the national investor”. The legislation stipulates two different processes:
the construction of the nuclear power plant,
studies into its necessity and a determination to solve energy problems of the country or entire region on one hand and financing issues on the other.

“Now we see the national investor project pushed into the Seimas under the disguise of the nuclear power plant,” said the economic analyst. The decision to construct a power plant is followed by a year of design works, which do not require extensive funding and can be funded by the state.

Foreign investors should not be ruled out in the solution of the financing matter.Consequences of the legislation to ordinary users, in Kuodis’ words, should be described in relevant studies that were never carried out.

He said this led to fears that the new power plant could be not competitive.

Arguments in favour:

All process was clear and transparent

We cannot wait any longer, since our partners (the other Balts and Poland) might find another alternatives

There are enough safeguards against for the state

The private partner will give all project an energy, expertise and aggressiveness

The cooperation will create the strongest company in the region

The state could not afford finically to undertake such project on its own Vilniaus prekyba  (the private investor) arguments:

We’ve spoken out our clear and rooted attitude, that Lithuania must reach independence in the domain of energy”

The VP group assured of having made a commitment to the president to review controversially acclaimed draft settlement agreements.’ We have very explicitly committed to participate and we confirm this. This is a firm stance of our company”

We don’t want the Lietuvos Energija to be the mother company of the investor since we don’t want to build the Plant for the Russians

We live here; we will build the plant and the links to the West since we want our children to live in a free and prosperous Lithuania.

The President noted to having written a long letter to Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas: “I signed the law and right away wrote a letter to the prime minister, expounding on the entire situation, and setting certain conditions. I hope that the government, prime minister will pay due attention to those conditions outlined by myself and will manage this whole thing with the future in mind”.

As the BNS informs the main requirement made in the letter of the president, was that Lithuania’s interests be given due consideration, no parties be given privileges and the entire implementation of the project be transparent, clear and understandable to the Lithuanian people.

The PM Kirkilas told the press that he has not yet had the time to read the letter, however promised to take all of the president’s requirements into considerations, just as long as the “possibilities and legislation allow”.  “In the short run, after the main negotiator - the Economy Minister - returns from Poland, we will all sit down at a table and definitely implement all of the president’s proposals”, Kirkilas said.

The PM said he believes that Leo LT will be created by beginning of May, and will begin negotiations over establishing a common company with Latvia, Estonia and Poland shortly thereafter: “Those negotiations will not be simple either”.

The Lithuanian PM Kirkilas on the other hand will propose that the government form a supervisory committee for the national investor, which is to be involved in constructing a new nuclear power plant and energy links with Sweden and Poland.

According to the PM press office press release the committee would supervise and coordinate the activities representing the nation’s - as shareholder’s of Leo LT - interests and make respective proposals to the government about constant improvement of this activity, the governmental press service said.

The press service also stated that the prime minister will propose that representatives from the State Security Department, National Control, National Control Commission for Prices and Energy Commission, and respective ministries get involved in the activity of the new supervisory committee.

After signing the amendments the President went to Poland were he participated in signing the documents of creation a joint company joint company, which will build a link between the two countries.

Well, it has to be said that this week was exceptionally busy in the Lithuanian energy sector. This blog will write more about the latest Lithuanian Polish deal in Warsaw.

One of the most significant law in the modern Lithuanian history passed in the Parliament on February 1.  Lithuanian Seimas passed amendments to the bill on nuclear power plant, which will capacitate finishing negotiations between the government and privately owned NDX Energija regarding the national investor.

It is proposed to create Leo LT, which would build a new nuclear power plant and energy links with Poland and Sweden, not through the state-owned Lietuvos Energija - as had been planned before - but through a new company, as NDX energy has bargained with the government.

This new company would incorporate the shares of state-owned Lietuvos Energija and distribution grid operator Rytu Skirstomieji Tinklai (RST) as well as Vakaru Skirstomieji Tinklai (VST), owned by NDX Energy.

This controversial law was widely discussed in the Lithuanian media and amongst the politicians.  Some 63 MPs voted in favour of the amendments, 11 voted against and three abstained.  The voting was boycotted by the Seimas opposition - Liberal Democrats, the Liberal Movement, Liberal Centrist Party, the Conservatives and a few members of other parliamentary groups.

The amendments will take effect if nation’s leader Valdas Adamkus doesn’t veto them.  Conservative Party leader urges Lithuanian president to veto amendments to the nuclear power plant.  As the BNS reported MP Kubilius notes that should nation’s leader Valdas Adamkus not veto the amendments, this would be a signal to entrepreneurs round the country that they can get away with whatever they do and however they choose to do it.

“The negotiations were not transparent, and the government has failed at defending public interest”, Kubilius said in a press conference organized Monday.

He noted that the bill is not flawless, as it was passed without presenting calculations on the expenditures of constructing the new plant and the price of energy it will produce.

The MP added that it is unclear as to how the new plant will incorporate the currently existent Ignalina N-plant’s infrastructure, and how the Kruonis pump storage power plant located in central Lithuania will function.

The government will control 61.7 % and NDX energy will control the remaining 38.3 % in the national investor company Leo LT.

The opposition voiced concerns that the Leo LT’s main objective written in the agreement is not to build the new plant and the links but to seek profit for the company and its share holders.  This aspect concerns Liberal Centrist leader Zuokas.

However, Lithuanian side has kept its promise to create a national investor to begin negotiations with its other partners of Latvia, Estonia and Poland.  The Economy ministers of all three ministers have met in Vilnius today.  The Lithuanian minister Navickas was pleasantly surprised by his Polish counterpart’s initiative.  The Polish Economy minister invited the Lithuanian Economy minister to sign an agreement in establishing a joint company, which will link the Lithuanian, and the Polish electricity grid.

This blog wrote about the negotiations between Lithuanian and Poland regarding the grid.

As the BNS reported should Russia decide to deploy a nuclear weapon in its Kaliningrad enclave, Lithuania would have to block the eastern neighbour’s military transit through its territory, a Lithuanian political scientist has said.

The interview was conducted with the director of Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Raimundas Lopata.

The political scientist told the BNS that with regards to the reasoning afloat from Russia about potential deployment of a nuclear weapon in its Kaliningrad enclave - neighbouring Lithuania and Poland - that “such proposals coming from the experts of cold war are beyond all sensible limits”.

The BNS reminded that the chief of Russian Armed Forces’ Main Directorate for Combat Training and Service, Vladimir Shamanov mentioned on 30 January that the Defence Ministry, in view of US plans to create an anti-missile defence system (ADS) in Europe, plans to adjust the deployment of military blocs in Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave’s special district.

Furthermore, Leonid Ivasov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Issues, appended this statement with a comment to Russia’s news agency Interfax, saying that should the US go through with its plans, Russia would deploy Iskander operational-tactical missile complexes (OTMC) and a tactical nuclear weapon in Kaliningrad to suit.

“If this was a fact, the Lithuanian state would have to respond accordingly, prepare for hazards and at least cut off military provisions to Kaliningrad, which currently have to pass through Lithuanian territory”, said Lopata in an interview to BNS, adding that it is still unknown whether the nuclear weapon that was previously deployed in Kaliningrad has in fact been lifted from there.

In the opinion of the political scientist, Russia’s decision to deploy a nuclear weapon in the enclave bordering with Lithuania and Poland would be a completely inadequate reaction on Russia’s part to US plans to deploy an anti-missile radar and a missile silo in Poland. Lopata notes that it is no secret that the US system is not pointed against Russia.

The political scientist remarked that Russia’s nuclear ambitions would not only be a challenge to Lithuania, but the entire region and strategic partners as well.

Lithuania states that the US quest to deploy elements of an anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic corresponds to its security interests.

The Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus gave an interview to the Swedish National Radio SR.

The President of Lithuanian made a speech, during a dinner discussion on Russian and its neighbours in Davos.  The speech was made day after a controversial remark by the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice  who noted  ‘Ladies and gentlemen, the recent talk about a new Cold War is hyperbolic nonsense.’

President Adamkus continued that ‘It is necessary to allow Russia define the level of its global responsibility itself and accordingly to define our relations with Russia. If Russia is seeking global responsibility and a global role, there are some benchmarks to be overcome:
- to withdraw troops from Georgia and Moldova, which is foreseen under the Istanbul Agreements;
- to ratify the Energy Charter;
- to follow the promises made when joining the Council of Europe;
- to follow intergovernmental agreements with other countries, including the Baltic States.’

Read all speech also watch and listen to the speech on the YouTube.

As the BNS informed foreign policy strategists from the United States, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania gathered in Vilnius on Thursday for an informal discussion of challenges to Euro-Atlantic dialogue.

The two-day meeting is attended by representatives of Lithuanian, Latvian, Polish and Swedish governments (Carl Bildt is going to participate also), foreign affairs and defence ministries, the US Department of State and the presidential administration and the European Commission’s Development Directorate and experts of US analytical centres.Among participants is Deputy Assistant to US Vice-President for National Security Affairs Joseph R. Wood and Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Daniel Fried.

According to information available to BNS, some participants of the Snow Summit preferred to remain unnamed.

BNS has also learned that the informal meeting was named the Snow Summit in hopes of Lithuania being covered with snow and had no other code meaning.

The BNS informed that the Lithuanian foreign policy analysts say that the meeting is held amid tendencies of stalling Euro-Atlantic integration in Eastern Europe and South Caucasus. Participants will exchange ideas and search for new instruments to accelerate the process, which is stalled by the fresh democracies in the regions and the Russian efforts to impede their Euro-Atlantic bids.

The experts say that the informal consultations of NATO partners last decade contributed to the Euro-Atlantic integration efforts in the Baltic states, which have already achieved NATO and European Union (EU) membership. Revival of the practice in Lithuania is expected.

According to information available to BNS, other items on the agenda of the Snow Summit include European-American cooperation in the context of energy, as well as perspectives of relations between European and US partners in the North Atlantic Alliance, which have alienated following the US invasion of Iraq.

According to the latest information available (just looked out of the window from my Vilnius home) the Snow meeting is going to turn into a Rain meeting since it is raining in Vilnius.  Is that an another consequence of the global worming?  Well, the participants of the meeting will not discuss that.  Besides, as we say in Lithuania ‘Čia Lietuva, čia lietūs lyja’ (It’s Lithuania, it rains here).  Please note that in Lithuanian ‘Lietuva’ is Lithuania and ‘lietus’ is rain.

Lithuania’s Economy Minister Vytas Navickas has dismissed as untrue the reports of Polish press that the Polish government may decide against taking part in the construction of new nuclear power plant in Lithuania.
“I think that information is untrue since I met with new Polish economy minister in Brussels on December 3, and there were no indications that Poland might pull out of the nuclear power plant project,” Navickas said in an interview to the public radio Lietuvos Radijas.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal Polska has reported that the Polish government, which took power two months ago, is pulling back from its predecessor’s plans to build a nuclear reactor by 2025 and may not take part in a project to build an atomic plant in Lithuania.

It should not come as a surprise to the minister Navickas, since the Poles did not show a huge enthusiasm to join the project after all.  First of all they were not too sure about the Lietuvos Energija Company and its business and personal links to Russia.  Furthermore, they sent few displeased signals when it became clear the Lithuanian Government approved a participation in the project of the private capital Vilnius Prekyba Group.  After creation of LEO LT, the VPG will also have its say in the negotiations.

On the other hand, this information from Warsaw could be another tactical move from the Polish negotiators, just to press Lithuanians even more to accept new demands.  However, it might be as well the news, which is ‘leaked’ in order to send Vilnius the message that we are planning to opt out of the project.  Lets wait and see. 

I would like to present you with a more updated version of the article from the Lietuvos Rytas